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DOE Pretends to Plan New Transmission

3/16/2024

3 Comments

 
Our Big Green government is wasting our tax dollars on an effort to "plan" new transmission, although is has absolutely no authority to do so.  The latest waste of money is entitled "Interregional Renewable Energy Zones" and is a partisan effort to create these "zones" in rural America and "suggest" new HVDC transmission to connect the "zones" to "load centers."  Boiled down, it's an ineffective "plan" to turn rural areas into industrial scale power plants covered with wind turbines and solar panels and then ship all that green juice to the elite bastions of urban arrogance.  Why?  It's simple... they don't want any ugly, invasive power infrastructure sited in their own backyard, but they still want to pretend they are "clean and green" by turning us all into their personal energy serfs.

Nice try, but rural areas aren't that stupid.  DOE has absolutely no authority whatsoever to plan renewable energy "zones" or new transmission lines.  It seemed they thought they did last year, until they were challenged and came up empty handed.  No authority.  Not happening.  

But they're not giving up.  They continue to waste our money on idiotic "reports" that do absolutely nothing.  This time, they claim that their work is "helpful" to states who may want to use this nonsense to plan for their own energy needs.  Sorry... the states don't need your help anymore that the transmission planning authorities do.  Nobody needs help from a bunch of babies that are too stupid and partisan to accept reality.
This study is a preliminary analysis to help state decision makers determine whether to pursue more detailed analyses of IREZ corridors that are relevant to them. This report could not fully account for all the case-specific details that would affect the configuration of a transmission project. Nevertheless, if a corridor examined in this study has a high benefit-to-cost ratio based only on energy cost savings, a follow-on study focusing on that corridor might expand the economic analysis to include local factors that we were not able to address here. A guiding premise behind the IREZ analysis is that states will ultimately take the lead in deciding whether to pursue IREZ development.
But that has approximately ZERO chance of happening.  Even if one or two states used this dreck to ask their regional planning authorities to plan for zones and transmission, there are too many "fly over" states that are never going to agree to it.

What states are those?  Take a look at the grandiose "plan."  (larger image available at the "report" link)
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The green dots are "zones" to be covered with wind turdbines and solar panels.  The red dots are the places that want to pretend they are only using renewable energy.  The lines are new HVDC transmission projects.
This study develops a model using renewable energy zones to address the new challenges of interregional transmission planning. An interregional renewable energy zone (IREZ) is an area comprising a very high concentration of very low-cost developable renewable energy potential. An IREZ hub is a collection point on the bulk power system to which renewable energy plants built in the IREZ can connect easily. The hub anchors an IREZ corridor that consists of a dedicated high-voltage transmission path from the IREZ hub to a major load center.
What were you smoking when you drew that?
We have identified and quantified several high-value IREZ corridors that affected states might consider for interregional transmission planning. Our analysis suggests that these corridors can be valuable tools for reducing carbon emissions in a manner that uses known technologies, has relatively small net impact on customers’ electricity bills, improves resource adequacy, and provides the grid with an additional measure of resilience against major disruptions related to climate change and other causes.
Affected states won't be "considering" that.  It is quite insane and wasteful.

And let's talk about that "using known technologies" thing.  The only "technology" NREL considered here was wind and solar.  That's it.  News flash!  We absolutely, positively, undeniably cannot reliably power the United States with only wind and solar.  Putting their intermittency and unreliability aside, they are just too expensive at this scale.  There's nothing in this report that adds up the cost of all those renewables in the "zones" and the cost of all the new transmission.  I don't think they can count that high.  Here's an idea!  Why don't you take all the money you were hoping to spend on this wasteful plan and use it to build clean, renewable nuclear generation at all the red dot load centers?  None of this transmission would be necessary, and that's a huge savings.  I'm sure it would be cheaper, but DOE didn't compare any other resource plans to this biased brain fart.

And, before I end, let's examine one of the huge errors DOE made purporting "benefits" for the states:
​Benefits could include assumptions about local tax receipts and indirect economic development effects in the IREZ state, payments to landowners for the acquisition of right-of-way (ROW) along the transmission path, net savings in energy costs for customers at the receiving end of the corridor, and enhanced resilience against extreme weather events.
Sorry, but payments to landowners for land taken from them against their will is NOT a benefit.  It is COMPENSATION for something taken from them.  The idea of compensation is that the landowner remains whole after the taking, although you can't grow crops on piles of dirty money.  It is not a windfall similar to winning the lottery.  The landowner is supposed to use that money to purchase additional land, or to make up for the inability to use that land in the future.  That is not a "benefit" by any stretch of the imagination.

DOE did a pretty poor job of trying to dredge up some reason why flyover states should willingly sacrifice themselves for the urban elite.  It also completely overlooks that the "zones" may not want to be covered in wind turbines and solar panels and may outright refuse to sign leases or permit these projects to be built.

What a complete and utter waste of taxpayer money.
3 Comments

Grain Belt's Not So Big News

2/23/2024

0 Comments

 
Someone sent me this article earlier this week.  It tries to pretend that Grain Belt Express has made some sort of regulatory or procedural progress... like it got things *approved*.  But the reality is that the only things GBE recently got was a well-deserved kick in the behind from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and a big nothing from the U.S. Department of Energy.  Big deal.  Must have been a slow news day... or just one ripe for propaganda and fake news.

​Let's go to the DOE thing first.
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That's right... zero plus zero is still zero.  GBE is still a big, fat zero.  FAST-41 is supposed to be a government run program that "speeds up" the environmental review for selected projects.  Except, the government getting involved has never sped up anything!  Government slows everything because of its pendulous rules and process.  GBE's Environmental Impact Statement has already been underway for more than a year, and it's already at least 6 months behind schedule.  And there's no end in sight.  How would anyone even know if FAST-41 speeds up the GBE EIS, since it's already behind the non-FAST schedule?  This is just a waste of time and tax dollars, let's move on to FERC.

The article says
Grain Belt Express is also making procedural headway at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
Say what?  Did this silly reporter even READ the FERC Order he's reporting on?  I'm thinking no, because no sane person would have read that Order and decided it was favorable to GBE.  What GBE got from FERC was nothing but a scolding.

We've known for quite a while that GBE was going to connect to MISO and AECI in Callaway County at the existing McCreedie subtation and also at a new substation it is sharing with Ranger Power's immense solar farm.  The new substation is called Burns.  Burns will be owned and built by incumbent utility Ameren (however I hear that Ranger Power bought the land and scraped all the topsoil off it before handing it over to Ameren).  Ameren has been ordered to build this substation and connect both Ranger Power and GBE by regional grid operator MISO.  Ameren cannot refuse to build it.   In addition, MISO's studies determined that there needs to be two new 345kV high-voltage transmission lines from the new Burns substation to the existing Montgomery substation (in Montgomery Co.) in order for GBE to connect.  The existing line cannot carry enough power and new ones must be built.  Ameren has also been ordered to build these new transmission lines, although GBE must pay for them.

GBE's interconnection to MISO was subject to a Transmission Connection Agreement between the parties.  The TCA is a pretty standard thing that relies in large part on MISO's filed tariff with FERC.  TCAs can be negotiated somewhat and once they are complete, they are filed with FERC for approval.  Except GBE could not agree with MISO on a number of issues so MISO filed the TCA with FERC unexecuted (unsigned).  FERC approved that unsigned TCA.  GBE had asked FERC to make several changes to the TCA and force MISO to do certain things, and for FERC to make Ameren hurry up and build the new transmission lines that GBE needs to make its connection at Burns.  FERC declined to make any of GBE's suggested changes and told GBE it was not necessary to tell Ameren to hurry up.  GBE got NOTHING it asked for here.  GBE was legally smacked upside the head.  FERC has sided with its regional transmission organization, MISO, on all issues.  This really isn't novel or different.  FERC always sides with its pet RTOs.  GBE is just stupid if it thinks it can challenge MISO and get a different result.  Maybe now Polsky will get a clue about why they "don't hear from them" on all the complaints Invenergy has filed against MISO?

Although the TCA was approved by FERC, it doesn't do anything to make GBE's connection happen faster.  It's still scheduled for, maybe, 2030.  GBE had asked FERC to force MISO to connect some smaller portion of capacity in 2027.  Not happening.

Why is this such an issue for GBE?  Here's a quote from the Order:
Grain Belt asserts that, with respect to the reasons for delaying the In-Service Date of the GBX Line, Ameren Missouri did not mention that its affiliate, Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois, was awarded a number of transmission facilities under MISO’s Long-Range Transmission Planning process, which it is constructing with planned In-Service Dates of 2028 and 2030. 
That's right, folks!  MISO ordered Ameren to build new transmission lines to be in service in 2028 and 2030 for the purpose of importing wind and solar energy from Iowa to Missouri and Illinois.  These regionally planned lines are cost allocated to all ratepayers in MISO.  This means that the cost to use them is going to be considerably LESS than the bloated $7B merchant transmission Grain Belt Express.  In fact, ratepayers are going to be paying for the new Ameren lines, even if they choose to use GBE instead.  Let's see... renewable energy on new lines you pay for OR renewable energy on the GBE, which costs a lot more, and then you STILL have to pay for the Ameren lines anyhow.  Doesn't take an energy trader to figure out that problem.

The Ameren lines will be cheaper.  Therefore, GBE is in a big hurry to try to get its bloated behemoth online before Ameren gets those lines built.  Looks like that's not going to be possible.

GBE is stripped bare... it's too expensive and obsolete.  Who would want to be a customer?  And, speaking of customers, GBE still does not have negotiated rate authority to try to find any.  No matter though... GBE can't connect its project until at least 2030, when there will be better options for renewable energy transmission service in MISO.
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Damned if you do, damned if you don't

1/27/2024

2 Comments

 
That was the sentiment expressed by one Missouri farmer about signing an easement for Grain Belt Express under threat of condemnation and taking of an easement across his land by Chicago-based energy conglomerate Invenergy.  The same sentiment also applies to cooperating with biased liberal media journalists from back East.  You can cheerfully cooperate and welcome these people to your home and business and hope that they are guided by professionalism and decency to tell your story accurately, or you can refuse to talk to them and be labeled as a selfish, renewable-hating deplorable in abstentia.

The people of rural Missouri are some of the most welcoming, thoughtful, and brave folks that I have ever met.  Even when their gut told them that a reporter from The New Yorker was probably going to do a hit piece, they warmly welcomed him and cooperated anyway.  They didn't deserve this.

Here's the filter through which the reporter viewed his entire Midwestern experience:
In a notice of intent to prepare an environmental-impact statement for the Grain Belt Express, the Energy Department notes that the project could create “local safety risks associated with electromagnetic fields, power surges, risk of increased lightning strikes, and line-induced fires.”

Of course, the risks associated with climate change are much more serious.

This was the reporter's preconceived notion going into this article.  Nothing anyone said or did, or anything he saw, felt, or experienced, was allowed to interfere with this pre-determined outcome.

​What do you mean, "of course"?  That's the reporter's bias.  The two main characters he visited for this story obviously did not agree.  It's all about perspective... safety risks from GBE are guaranteed and immediate for the people who will have to live and work around it for the rest of their lives.  Climate change is a political  theory espoused by people like the reporter, who don't have to live and work around a dangerous invader every day.  GBE won't be outside his kitchen window every morning, and he won't have to drive huge farm machinery around giant impediments on his land numerous times every year.  GBE will not be personally affecting him so he is content to belittle its impacts on others in favor of his own armchair scientist theories.  The risk to Missouri farmers is REAL.  The risk to the reporter is a watered down possibility.  Get off your high horse, buddy, assuming you've ever even been on a horse, of course.

The article drones on about how wind and solar energy has not been successfully deployed, and that it will require enormous sacrifice to ever work as a dependable source of electricity.  Instead of contemplating, perhaps,  whether wind and solar is not a realistic future energy source because it isn't progressing, the reporter  doubles down on a bad idea by believing transmission lines like Grain Belt Express can be the turning point to success.  It can't.  Wind and solar are not the answer for our energy future.  It's too expensive, too invasive, and unreliable.  It's actually making our entire electric system incredibly fragile.  We need to abandon this bad idea in favor of new technology that can produce the energy we need where we need it when we need it.  I haven't heard any talk that we need enormous amounts of new transmission for new-age nuclear generators.  Wind and solar is an experiment that didn't work, but it made a lot of investors very rich and they don't want to let go of their golden goose, even if it is for the betterment of society.

The reporter's portrayal of Loren Sprouse and Marilyn O'Bannon as "holdouts" against a "better grid" is unfair.  Both Loren and Marilyn have selflessly devoted themselves to careful and deliberate examination of the issue and spent their personal time and money standing up for the rights of farmers.  They did the right thing. 

The reporter fails to mention that Loren is a knowledgeable electrical engineer and preferred to portray him as an uneducated rural farmer.  When Loren worries about GBE's interference with GPS, he's basing it on REAL studies and, more importantly, real experience using GPS systems to farm.  As if Loren's educated concerns can be alleviated altogether because the reporter managed to find a Canadian study that said there was no problem.  Neither the reporter or the Canadian study author will be in the cab with Loren when his GPS system is scrambled or temporarily disabled.

When Loren says that GBE could have been designed better, he's expressing an educated opinion.  Numerous other HVDC transmission lines have been proposed and built underground on existing road/rail rights-of-way.  Choosing to reject that and instead swallow a great, big mouthful of Invenergy's excuses for not burying its line demonstrates the reporter's bias and ignorance.  Grain Belt Express was planned more than a decade ago based on a bad idea for cheap, overhead lines across private property.  GBE has poured millions of dollars down the drain trying to force its cheap, overhead project on private landowners over the last 15 years.  At any time it could have stopped and investigated whether there was a better way to do things.  But it did not.  Perhaps if GBE had stopped throwing good money after bad 10 years ago, it could have used all the money it wasted on lawyers, lawsuits, environmental studies, experts, land acquisition, and buying advocacy to bury its line on existing rights-of-way instead.  Perhaps if it had, GBE would be built and in operation right now.

Instead, it's barely limping along a road so lengthy it cannot see the end.  GBE doesn't have county assents in Missouri, its Illinois permit is being appealed, it has not announced enough customers to pay for the line (and in fact doesn't even have permission to negotiate with customers), it has not secured its financing, it doesn't have all the land it needs, its interconnection has been delayed 3 years, and it's now facing competition from new transmission planned to be built by regional grid operator MISO.

Marilyn O'Bannon is one of the nicest, most thoughtful ladies I've ever met.  But she's not a pushover.  This brave lady didn't just complain when GBE showed up in Missouri, she stood up and fought for everyone.  She was instrumental in forming a landowner group, fully participating at every opportunity, and she pushed herself to leave no stone unturned in her quest for justice.  She went on to become a popular county commissioner, taking on a leadership role when people needed her most.

It doesn't matter what she was wearing, or what she was driving, or what various characters in the story ate for that matter.  The part about the Escalade was touching... but he forgot to mention that Marilyn intended to take him around the farm in a pick up, the vehicle of choice for just such an adventure.  However, when they got outside, they found all the pick ups were in use around the farm doing actual farm work.  She could have sent him packing, or cancelled the tour.  But instead, she took her 6-year old Escalade, used to go to town, not putter around the farm.  And for that, she gets slyly attacked, like she has no right to own or drive such a car while opposing GBE's invasion of her farm.  What  is she allowed to drive to become a sympathetic character in this story?  A totally inappropriate (and much more expensive) electric coupe?  The reporter, who may or many not even own a car of his own, had no idea why a farmer may have more than one vehicle, each for a different purpose. 

I found the focus on Marilyn's outfit downright creepy.  Five-pointed stars on her shirt?  What does that even mean?  Who cares?  The trucker's hat on the counter... was he sad it wasn't on her head to complete his irrational attack on her character?  I'd bet that reporter would covet just such a cap if a filthy rich corporation came to take his land, or his family's land, for its own profit.  Nobody knows what eminent domain feels like until it happens to them.  It's a devastating punch to the gut, not a slogan used to make ad hominem attacks on people unlucky enough to experience it.

The quotes attributed to Marilyn regarding climate change are manufactured, she claims.  Marilyn shared that she was recently contacted by a New Yorker "fact checker" to make sure the quotes in the story were correct.  Although she said they were not, it didn't matter.  They stayed in the story.  That's all we need to know to dismiss this article as a pre-planned hit piece.

At the end of the day though, nobody in rural Missouri reads The New Yorker.  It doesn't matter to them or their battle how they are perceived by eastern city dwellers.  What does matter is that Marilyn, Loren, and others graciously hosted a stranger and told their story honestly.  That the reporter couldn't accept it because it didn't fit with his pre-determined agenda is all on him.  Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.  It's a good way to live.
2 Comments

How Transmission Lines are Routed

12/18/2023

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New transmission lines are routed by utilities using an extensive process.  The actual proposed route is unlikely to resemble preliminary maps created by PJM Interconnection, or Piedmont Environmental Council.  PEC simply laid PJM's generalized maps over an interactive map with actual detail.  These maps may have shown transmission lines cutting through homes, historic districts, and other valuable assets.  That's unlikely to happen when actual proposed routes are released by the utilities building the MidAtlantic Resiliency Link (MARL).

So, how DO utilities develop proposed routes?  Here's a look at how they developed the proposed routes for the proposed, but never built, PATH transmission project 15 years ago.  Utilities still use the same process today.
path-lre.pdf
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Certain lands and structures are avoided.  Here's a list:
The Routing Team developed specific routing criteria in identifying, evaluating, and selecting routes, attempting to minimize:

Route length, circuity, cost, and special design requirements.

The removal or substantial interference with the use of existing residences.

The removal of existing barns, garages, commercial buildings, and other nonresidential structures. 

Substantial interference with the use and operation of existing schools, existing and recognized places of worship, existing cemeteries, and existing facilities used for cultural and historical, and recreational purposes.

Substantial interference with economic activities.

Crossing of designated public resource lands such as national and state forests and parks, large camps and other recreation lands, designated battlefields or other designated historic resources and sites, and wildlife management areas.

Crossing large lakes and large wetland complexes, critical habitat, and other scarce, distinct natural resources.
​

Substantial visual impact on residential areas and public resources.
While trying to avoid those things, the utility must also take these safety and engineering considerations into account:
Avoid double-circuiting or crossing existing 765 kV lines.

Do not parallel existing 765 kV lines for more than 1 mile in any particular location.

Minimize the crossing of 345 kV and 500 kV transmission lines.

Minimize paralleling corridors with more than one existing 345 kV or 500 kV circuit.
​

Maintain 200 feet of centerline-to-centerline separation when paralleling existing 345 kV, 500 kV, and 765 kV transmission lines.

Maintain 150 feet of centerline-to-centerline separation when paralleling 138 kV or lower voltage transmission lines.

Minimize angles greater than 65 degrees and sloping soils more than 30 degrees (20 degrees at angle points).

Do not triple-circuit lines of
345 kV or greater voltage. 
Of course, it's impossible to avoid everything in the first list.  The second list consists of engineering and safety standards and cannot be changed.  Therefore, while the utility may attempt to avoid your home, it may not be able to avoid your property.  Instead of going over top of your home and making it uninhabitable, they may go 200 ft. from your back door.  Might as well have taken your entire home, right?  I urge you to read this report carefully so you can get a feel for the things that can change transmission line routes so that you are well-armed when MARL holds public meetings in your area to present its initial proposed routes and get your feedback.

Something interesting in this report is the claim that "paralleling" existing transmission lines is somehow preferred... as if the people who live with them won't notice another gigantic transmission line across their property, or simply won't care.  Think about it... if you are unlucky enough to have a transmission line routed through your backyard, would you welcome another one?  Of course not!  A new idea has been formulated since the PATH project called "energy justice."  Energy justice means that we cannot keep forcing more and more energy infrastructure on the same people.  These unlucky people have already "taken one for the team" by hosting a transmission line (or power plant) nearby.  Isn't it someone else's turn?  Inherent in this status quo is that objectionable infrastructure projects historically end up in the backyards of populations at a disadvantage.  They are not as able as other more fortunate places to fight back and win.  Therefore, the disadvantaged communities get the infrastructure thrust upon them time after time.  This is not only unfair, it is morally reprehensible.  We ALL deserve to live safely and happily on our own property.  Nobody is a "throw away" to be ground down under the boot heel of "progress."

Another problem with paralleling is that homes and communities have been built up around old transmission lines that have been in place for decades.  In some places, the development is so thick that paralleling causes the taking of improvements made just outside the right of way, whether it is a shed, barn, fence, pool, swing set for the kiddos.  It also can include land the homeowner is using for a well and/or septic system.  None of these ordinary residential land uses are compatible with transmission easements and will have to be removed.  If a home's water and sewage disposal is made unusable, that can make the home uninhabitable.  Paralleling is an idea that needs to die.

Also interesting in this report are the routes where the utility proposed tearing down an existing transmission line and rebuilding it on new structures that include both the old circuit and the new one.  The unfortunate part of that situation is that the easement must always be expanded to house the bigger structures.  This is exactly what FirstEnergy is planning to do with its portion of the MARL -- tear down an existing 138kV line on wooden poles less than 100 ft. tall that is situated on a 75 ft. wide easement, and replace it with a 500kV/138kV 200 ft. tall double circuit on big, new lattice steel towers.  The existing easement must be expanded to accommodate this new line.  

How much?  Well, that seems to be mired in layers of murk.  When NextEra originally proposed the MARL, it said it could do this amazing rebuild with only 30 additional feet of right of way.  30 added to the existing 75 equals 105 feet.  No way they are putting this double-circuit monstrosity in 105 feet, right next to a parallel existing 500kV line.  It doesn't even meet safety code.  So, NextEra was either ignorant of the width of the existing ROW, or simply making things up in order to make its project more likely to be selected by PJM.  However, PJM decided to give that rebuild section to incumbent line owner FirstEnergy to rebuild its own line to include MARL.  FirstEnergy has not yet announced how much it would need to expand the existing ROW.  We're in the dark on the rebuild section.  However, when routing PATH 15 years ago, FirstEnergy had this to say about expanding that 138kV ROW:
In these cases, the existing transmission corridor already runs through theses areas, and in order to keep the height of the structures lower, the Applicant would work with the holders of these easements to modify them in order to acquire approximately 105 feet of additional ROW. 
PATH proposed expanding the existing 138kV easement in Northern Loudoun by 105 feet.  105 plus the existing 75 feet comes to nearly 200 ft.  200 feet is the standard easement required for a 500kV line like MARL.  I guess we can expect that FirstEnergy is going to ask landowners for another 105 feet of easement for the 36-mile section stretching from Frederick County, VA to the point in Loudoun where the line turns south towards Waterford.  This includes the section in Jefferson County, WV.  If you live along this stretch, you may want to measure an additional 105 ft. from the edge of the existing ROW to see how much of your property is going to be gobbled up by expanded ROW, and how much closer it is going to be to your home.

It is our job to educate ourselves if we're going to be successful in stopping the MARL.  Taking a look at how utilities actually route transmission lines is the next logical step.
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GBE Project Delayed Another 3 Years

12/12/2023

1 Comment

 
Grain Belt Express is complaining again.  Last week it filed a complaint with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission against MISO, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator.  This makes the second complaint Invenergy filed against MISO regarding GBE.  The first complaint GBE filed is still languishing more than a year later.  This one will probably suffer a worse fate.

The problem is that MISO recently notified GBE that it was changing the date for connecting GBE to the MISO transmission system from December 1, 2027 to December 1, 2030 based on MISO's determination that some of the Network Upgrades that are required by MISO for Grain Belt's interconnection may not be ready by 2027.   GBE says it will have its project built in 2028 and wants MISO to allow it to connect some smaller portion of its capacity that does not rely on the Network Upgrades at that time.

MISO's rules do not allow for this kind of "limited operation," therefore MISO cannot grant it without changing its rules.  In order to change its rules, MISO must complete its stakeholder process, which can take years to talk about the rule changes, vote on the rule changes, get the rule changes approved by FERC, before they can become effective.  That's probably going to take longer than 2030 because MISO has a lot on its plate.

GBE tries to tell FERC that other system operators permit limited operation, therefore MISO should, too.  Too bad GBE never raised this issue and asked for this rule when the rules for merchant transmission were being made.  It is what it is... GBE cannot connect to MISO until 2030.  That's 7 years from now.

But what about those "Network Upgrades" that got delayed and required pushing GBE's interconnection out until 2030?  What are those upgrades?  According to GBE's complaint:
The Ameren upgrades involve two new 345 kV Montgomery-Burns transmission lines for which GBX will pay $126.5 million. The total cost of all upgrades that GBX is funding under the TCA is $217 million. In addition to permitting the two new Ameren transmission lines, Ameren mentioned some concerns about scheduling outages in connection with these lines and coordinating with AECI, which is an Affected System. 
Well, what do you know... two MORE 345kV transmission lines caused by GBE and that GBE needs to have built in order to connect its project.  First there was the GBE itself, then there was the 40-mile Tiger connector and now TWO 345kV lines connecting the new Burns substation in Callaway County to the existing Montgomery substation to the east.  Where is the Montgomery substation?
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These 2 new 345kV transmission lines are the financial responsibility of GBE, but will be built by Ameren in its service territory.  Therefore, Ameren has to get them permitted by the PSC.  More landowners are going to be affected with new transmission only made necessary because of GBE.  But will these new landowners be entitled to 150% of fair market value?  What problems are going to crop up during permitting of these new lines?  Is it going to take them as long to get permitted as all the other GBE lines?  No wonder the connection date has been pushed out until 2030.

Grain Belt Express -- spreading the misery to thousands of landowners across Missouri for at least 20 years.  Will GBE even be relevant by then?
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PJM's Constructability Farce

12/1/2023

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Constructability?  Is that a word?  My internet spelling police hates it, but constructability is defined as:
Constructability (or buildability) is a concept that denotes ease of construction. It can be central to project management techniques to review construction processes from start to finish during pre-construction phase. Buildability assessment is employed to identify obstacles before a project is actually built to reduce or prevent errors, delays, and cost overruns.
PJM loves its constructability analyses to select a project from a pool of many options.  PJM pretends it's all so scientific and dependable.  But, is it really?

Here's PJM's Constructability and Financial Analysis Report.  I didn't expect it to be anywhere near correct or accurate, and I wasn't disappointed.  It's completely illogical to the point of demonstrating bias.  Why is it that PJM has selected some of the most risky projects to recommend for approval by its Board of Managers?  Here's what I mean (see page 115 of the report for larger image):
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Out of this "west" group, PJM has selected the riskiest project, Proposal 853.  853 has two "high" risks, two "medium-high" risks, and two "medium" risks.  It's the riskiest one in the table.  So, maybe it's about costs?  Proposal 853 costs $1,195,240.  It's still more than the cost of Proposal 904 at $1,122,400.  It can't be based on price.  Just what DID motivate PJM to select 853 instead of 904 or one of the other projects on the table?

What is proposal 904?  It's the building of a new 765kV transmission line through a section of central Virginia.  904 connects the data centers to a huge inventory of fossil fuel generators in the Ohio River Valley using AEP's 765kV transmission network.   Significantly, proposal 904 keeps all the transmission necessary to serve Virginia's new data center build in Virginia.  The other proposals inflict the burden of serving Virginia's data centers on other surrounding states.  Keep that in mind as we examine these two competing proposals as PJM did in its Constructability report.

Project 853
Overall, the ROW risk for the new West cluster transmission line components in this proposal is medium-high to high, as the proposed new transmission lines are routed parallel to an existing ROW for majority of their alignment. 

Environmental Risk Analysis
46a – 502 Junction to Black Oak OH 500 kV Line
Route crosses West Virginia and MD Department of Natural Resource (DNR)-recognized public lands and is also within a short distance of residential areas.
4CA – Black Oak to Woodside OH 500 kV Line
Route crosses through the Appalachian Mountains and intersects with VA Natural Heritage easements.
10C1A – Woodside to Gant (Segment 1) OH 500 kV Line
The proposed route for this line segment goes through several national scenic and historic trails (Harpers Ferry National Historical Park and the Appalachian Scenic Trail), and intersects public lands and conservation easements. This may require permission from the National Park Service (NPS) and require an Environmental Assessment (EA) pursuant to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to analyze the impacts to the environment and park resource, which could be a lengthy process. This route is also within a short distance of residential and commercial areas.
10C3 – Woodside to Gant (Segment 2) OH 500 kV Line
The proposed route for this greenfield line segment goes through highly developed residential and commercial developments, as well as state and local conservation easements. This route also crosses the Washington & Old Dominion (W&OD Trail), a regional park in northern Virginia. There is significant risk of public opposition to the proposed route, which may lead to rerouting this segment along the existing corridor from Doubs to Goose Creek.

Overall, for Proposal 853, medium-high constructability risks are assessed for the proposed line routes due to anticipated lengthy regulatory process, potential public opposition, construction difficulty, environmental constraints and property acquisition, which may have significant impacts on the cost and schedule for the proposed project.

Transmission Line Risk Analysis
Significant engineering and construction challenges are anticipated for the proposed lines to construct a total of 167 miles of new transmission through four states and will require parallel crews and construction where possible to mitigate schedule challenges that will be introduced by the anticipated lengthy permitting and land acquisition process.
For the rebuild portions of the proposed line routes, there are challenges with existing overhead transmission infrastructure components needing to be removed/salvaged before construction of proposed brownfield lines can commence, and potential design and ROW limitations for reuse of existing infrastructure/assets.
Other medium risks for this project involve the existing facility outages that will be necessary for the project, particularly for the line rebuild and substation upgrades. 

Schedule Review
The proposed in-service date of June 2027 is very aggressive for the proposed scope of the project considering the significant permitting and land acquisition challenges associated with the proposed 500 kV greenfield line routes through four states. Overall, the schedule risk is considered medium-high. 
Project 904
Environmental Risk Analysis
Joshua Falls-Yeat 765 kV OH Line
The proposed line route has the potential to impact environmental and cultural resources including: the Southern Albemarle Rural Historic District, a FEMA High-Risk Flood Zone, wetlands and several waters subject to USACE Section 10 permitting, the most significant being the James River. The route also intersects local conservation easements and appears to co-locate with pipeline ROWs.
Warrenton-Wheeler 230 kV OH Line
The line crosses woodland, residential and agricultural parcels in Fauquier and Prince William counties in Virginia. The route intersects local conservation easements and potentially impacts environmental resources such as Auburn Battlefield Historic District, flood plains and wetlands.
There are medium constructability risks assessed for the proposed line routes due to anticipated lengthy land acquisition process, potential public opposition and environmental constraints, which will have impacts on the cost and schedule for the proposed project.
Transmission Line Risk Analysis
Transource has an optimistic schedule for several aspects of this component and would require a near perfect execution to maintain the proposed in-service date. Given the scale of the component, a 135 mile 765 kV line with everything from permitting to land acquisition to construction poses a risk for delay, the most critical being land acquisition.
For the 230 kV developments, Yeat-Clover Hill and Warrenton-Wheeler, these facilities will utilize BOLD (Breakthrough Overhead Line Design), which is a structure family developed by AEP. The design features a monopole structure with two arched crossarms to hold two circuits in a delta configuration. Benefits of BOLD include increased line capacity with lower-profile structures. However, utilizing this structure family poses risks to the schedule, specifically procurement of the arched crossarms, construction and maintenance of a non-typical design.
​
Schedule Review
This proposal includes 765 kV substation and transmission line construction, as well as utilization of BOLD (Breakthrough Overhead Line Design) technology for the greenfield 230 kV lines. The sum of all components is a very aggressive undertaking to be completed within the proposed schedule. The primary risks for this proposal are related to the magnitude of the scope of work, procurement and construction of 765 kV equipment and BOLD structures, state permitting and land acquisition for both the 765 kV and 230 kV developments. These all pose a medium-high risk to the December 2029 in-service date proposed by Transource. 
Project 853 has medium-high constructability risks, while 904 has medium constructability risks.  Gee, no help there either.  904 is cheaper and less risky, but PJM still selected 853.

And then there's this tidbit... did you catch it the first time you read it?  
There is significant risk of public opposition to the proposed route, which may lead to rerouting this segment along the existing corridor from Doubs to Goose Creek. 
PJM KNOWS this project isn't going to happen the way it was proposed and recommended for approval.  PJM is already anticipating so much opposition to the new greenfield segment in Loudoun County that it will have to abandon this plan and move the proposed new 500kV transmission line over to an existing corridor between Doubs and Goose Creek.  What is that corridor?
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The 853 project in Loudoun is represented by that green line.  The Doubs corridor is represented by that roughly parallel yellow line to the east.  Sounds like a solution, you think?  Think again!  PJM has also recommending work on the Doubs-Goose Creek corridor to add another 500kV line to its existing 500kV and 230kV lines.  In order to squeeze another 500kV line in there, PJM proposes to rebuild the existing 230kV line as a double circuit 230/500 kV line, and then add a second 500kV line.  Moving the 853 project over to the Doubs corridor would add a THIRD 500kV line to that existing corridor.  Would that be a double circuit 500/500 kV, in addition to a 230/500 kV double circuit?  Or would there be one 230/500 kV double circuit, and two separate 500 kV lines?  Either way, it will require significant expansion of the current easement through a heavily developed area of Frederick and Montgomery Counties (Maryland) and construct an unimaginable amount of power in that corridor (three 500kV circuits + one 230kV circuit).  Chances of success on this idea rate right up there with the survival of a snowball in Hell.  Which area is capable of forming bigger opposition?  Loudoun County or Frederick/Montgomery Counties?  Personally, I think it's a tie.  Either one is going to kill this project dead.  Remember, it's not about fighting each other to push the project off onto someone else, it's about stopping the bad project altogether.  Nobody wants this anywhere!

So, what did we learn from PJM's constructability analysis?  Not much.  PJM did not examine the gray areas of opposition that I did.  PJM pretty much ignored the possibility of opposition derailing their plans.  Dismissed!

But, we're not going away.  In fact, we're only going to get stronger.  I predict that this project will NEVER get built.  Maybe PJM should go back to the drawing board and take another look at project 904?  Why did they dismiss that project anyhow?  PJM never actually says.  In fact, after reading all of PJM's excuses, err I mean analyses, I came away more convinced than ever that this whole thing is a farce.  Some of the excuses for not selecting a project were so ridiculous, such as -- we didn't select this project because we selected a different project.  That's not a REASON for making a project selection.  I also got the idea that PJM is absolutely terrified of rich people opposition in certain areas of Northern Virginia.  PJM has bowed down to the wealthy and privileged due to their bad experience trying to route the TrAIL project through those areas.  PJM thinks it's a better idea to route its projects through disadvantaged areas that can't fight back (or so they think).  That kind of thinking is outrageous in this day and age of environmental and energy justice reform.  Add in the fact that PJM's new transmission lines are nothing but extension cords importing dirty, delicious, coal-fired electricity out of West Virginia and Pennsylvania and you've got a project idea that is dead on arrival when asking for federal help.

Stupid, stupid, stupid, on top of dumb, dumb, dumb, PJM!  It's obvious PJM has another agenda at work here and it's not providing needed electric service at the lowest cost.  Let's hope the PJM Board of Managers examines this farce carefully before making its decision on December 11.
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Your Lack of Planning is NOT my Responsibility!

11/13/2023

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PJM Interconnection's solution to 2022 Window 3 transmission needs is comprised of a collection of new and upgraded 500kV transmission lines, along with a number of 230kV new lines and upgrades.  Why does this matter?  It's all about who pays.

PJM will assign project costs to different subregions of its territory according to its existing FERC-approved cost allocation rules.  As noted in a recent FERC Order, these rules are:
PJM utilizes a hybrid cost allocation method, which the Commission found complies with Order No. 1000, for Regional Facilities and Necessary Lower Voltage Facilities that address a reliability need.  Under this method, PJM allocates 50% of the costs of Regional Facilities or Necessary Lower Voltage Facilities on a load-ratio share basis and the other 50% based on the solution-based distribution factor (DFAX) method.  PJM allocates all of the costs of Lower Voltage Facilities using the solution-based DFAX method.  Cost responsibility assignments pursuant to the Order No. 1000-compliant cost allocation method are included in Schedule 12-Appendix A of the Tariff. 
500kV lines are "Regional Facilities".  It is likely that the 230kV improvements will be "Necessary Lower Voltage Facilities."  Therefore, 50% of the cost of these new lines, estimated at $5.4B, will be allocated to ALL customers in the PJM region based on their load-ratio share.  The load-ratio share, in layman's terms, is the amount of PJM's total load used by each sub-region. Everyone who pays an electric bill in PJM will pay for their share of $2.7B of new transmission that is only necessary because of the building of new data centers in Northern Virginia and the closing of fossil fuel generation made necessary by the clean energy laws of certain states.  Although the reason for the lines is caused by only a portion of the region, everyone pays.

The other 50%, or $2.7B, of the costs will be allocated using the DFAX method which, in layman's terms, would be the specific sub-regions who use the new facilities.

This is set in stone and it cannot be changed unless PJM petitions FERC to change its cost allocation rules, or FERC takes the initiative to begin a proceeding to investigate electric rates that have become unjust and unreasonable. 

This cost allocation for PJM's new projects is not fair.  However, there is nothing you can do about it.

In a recent case, PJM filed a cost allocation document for recently approved projects intended to solve the closing of the Brandon Shores coal-fired plant in Baltimore.  Most of the cost was allocated to the sub-region around Baltimore that would use the new facilities, with some smaller portions assigned to other sub-regions.  Maryland regulators didn't like this.  They thought PJM should have found other solutions to the generator closing instead of a quickly approved transmission plan that cost nearly a billion dollars.  The Maryland regulators filed a protest in PJM's cost assignment FERC docket.  FERC said that since the cost allocation PJM made was in accord with PJM's existing, FERC-approved cost allocation rules, there was nothing they could do but approve it.

However, something interesting happened there.  Commissioner Mark Christie, a champion for electric ratepayers, said it wasn't fair, although he was obligated to approve it.  You should read his Concurrence because it may be a harbinger of things to come.
PJM has told us that if we fail to approve those transmission projects in this RTEP driven by the closure of the Brandon Shores coal generating unit located in Maryland, the grid will likely suffer a severe voltage collapse in Baltimore and the surrounding zones, including Northern Virginia, the District of Columbia, Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. Such a result could be potentially catastrophic.
While these projects are very costly – and I take seriously the concerns expressed by the Organization of PJM States, Inc. (OPSI), Maryland Public Service Commission (MD PSC) and Maryland Office of People’s Counsel (OPC) – given this Hobson’s choice I concur with approving PJM’s RTEP filing.
While I concur, I note that this element of the RTEP filing raises more questions than it answers, and some of those questions are extraordinarily important.  
Although perhaps he did not find the cost allocation fair, Commissioner Christie chose to approve it because of the extreme risk of blackouts if the projects were delayed by a FERC investigation into the justness and reasonableness of PJM's cost allocation policies.

We are hobbled by PJM's bad policies and poor planning practices into a future that never allocates project costs fairly.  Will people complain about the upcoming cost allocation of PJM's 2022 Window 3 projects?  Absolutely.  But will FERC open an investigation, or will it be forced into another Hobson's choice?

Commissioner Christie shared his thoughts on how PJM's cost allocation rules have been rendered unjust and unreasonable by recent events.
Let me emphasize that the State of Maryland, within its sovereign police powers, clearly has the authority to mandate any particular mix of generating resources it prefers.  Maryland’s new climate law is well within its inherent authority to enact.  Such policies are for Marylanders to choose, not RTOs or FERC.  But if the resulting transmission projects under protest in this RTEP filing are caused more by Maryland’s policy choices than by organic load growth and economic resource retirements, then a salient question that may be asked is whether these transmission projects are more accurately categorized as public policy projects, essentially the same as the transmission upgrades caused by New Jersey’s offshore wind projects?
And if they are more accurately categorized as public policy projects, should such projects be regionally cost-allocated, potentially to consumers in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, et al.?
A very relevant question that can also be applied to the current problem with PJM's 2022 Window 3.  Is the closing of more generation in certain states due to their climate laws, and the out-of-control building of new data centers that will only benefit one or two counties in Virginia, more of a public policy issue that should be paid for by the states/localities involved?  After all, it is their choice to put pressure on the amount of generation available in PJM.  Before passing laws that mandate the closing of existing generators, or before approving the building of new facilities that require extreme amounts of new electric supply, the states or localities responsible need to make sure that they still have adequate generation available to serve their load.  It is within their power to include a provision in their law that the closing of generators must be balanced with the building of new generators.  It is also within these state powers to make sure there is an adequate supply of generation in the state/locality to serve big, new electric customers like data centers, before approving them.  Instead, the states/localities are making these choices and leaving the consequences on the doorstep of others who have no vote on that state's policy choices.  This is not just and reasonable.  It's irresponsible.  It's selfish.  It pushes the consequences of a state's policy choices off on residents of other states.  In this same vein, do the voluntary policy choices of one state that requires new transmission also compel other states to use their eminent domain authority to take property from their state's residents to create easements for new transmission that serves the state making the selfish policy?  Why would I be asked to give up my property to build transmission that is caused by the building of data centers in Northern Virginia?

The "New Jersey" approach Commissioner Christie refers to is what's known as the "state agreement" approach to cost allocation.  It is a more recent construct that allows a state with a new public policy to voluntarily agree to shoulder all the costs of new transmission made necessary by their state policies.  This construct would prevent the unjust and unreasonable allocation of costs to states that did not cause the need for new transmission.  It's exactly where we find ourselves now.  The question is, would FERC open an investigation to correct PJM's current cost allocation for Window 3 to order it be allocated according to the public policy "state agreement" cost allocation approach?
It is ultimately the job of each state to ensure resource adequacy to serve its consumers, even in a multi-state RTO. ​
Amen, Commissioner Christie!  Perhaps if they did, they'd stop prematurely shutting down fossil fuel generators before replacement generation is available.  And perhaps they'd stop approving new data centers without any viable means of powering them.  Instead, it's been left on the doorstep of all the other states in the PJM region to pay for, and house, transmission only made necessary by the thoughtless politics of certain states and localities.  This is not just and reasonable.
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PJM's Altered Reality

11/1/2023

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Yesterday, PJM Interconnection held its monthly Transmission Expansion Advisory Committee (TEAC) meeting.  At the meeting, PJM revealed its plan for massive transmission expansion around the Mid-Atlantic region to fix electric reliability issues caused by the closure of 11,000 megawatts of fossil fuel generation combined with 7,500 megawatts of increased demand from the out-of-control building of new data centers in Northern Virginia.  It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that these numbers add up to a need for increased electric generation close to 20,000 megawatts.  For reference, a good sized coal, nuclear or gas-fired electric generation station amounts to around 800-1000 megawatts.  We need 20,000 megawatts of what's known as "baseload" power, generation that can be counted on to generate when called and is not dependent upon weather or other factors to produce electricity.  Also for reference, a good sized solar farm may have the capacity to produce up to 100 megawatts, if it has the fuel (sunshine) necessary to generate.  We're going to need 20-25 new baseload generation plants, or 200 new large solar farms.  PJM does not order new generation to be built.  It can only order new transmission to move existing generation around.  And that is the purpose of PJM's new transmission plan.  PJM plans to import electric generation to Northern Virginia from West Virginia and Pennsylvania, the only two states in the PJM region that still produce excess electricity from fossil fuels.  In order to do so, PJM has planned numerous new extension cords from WV and PA that will connect with the "needy" areas in the DC - Baltimore metro areas.  On PJM's map, it looks like this:
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As shown, much of the burden of importing generation into the DC - Baltimore area is placed on rural areas to the north and west, who are expected to sacrifice their homes, businesses, and communities to make way for these new transmission extension cords.  

One such project begins in WV's northern panhandle along the Ohio River at the Kammer substation and meanders southeast for hundreds of miles through 4 states before connecting to a new substation in Northern Virginia's "data center alley."  PJM's map of this project looks like this:
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At the western end, the extension cord is surrounded by old coal and gas electric generators in WV and SW PA.  Look at them all!  That's where the power will be produced.  At the eastern end, the extension cord is surrounded by data centers.  That's where the power will be used.  This project proposes to build a new 500kV transmission line on new right-of-way adjacent to an existing line.  People who have one line on their property will now have two.  In some areas, it proposes to veer off the existing lines and create new rights-of-way in areas without transmission lines.  In Jefferson County, WV, the proposal is to demolish and rebuild an existing 138kV transmission line on an expanded right-of-way to create a double circuit 500/138kV transmission line on new lattice steel towers up to 200 feet tall.  In some areas of Jefferson, the project will veer off the right-of-way and create new right-of-way in areas that currently do not have transmission lines.  Once the project crosses the Appalachian Trail and enters Virginia, it proposes to veer sharply south/southeast and create a new 500kV transmission line through areas that currently do not have transmission lines, such as Waterford.  At its end point, it will connect with a new substation along the Dulles Greenway in Ashburn.

To the northeast, PJM proposes a new 500kV transmission line on new right-of-way in areas that currently don't have transmission lines in order to bring power from Pennsylvania produced by gas and nuclear to an existing substation in Frederick County, MD called Doubs.  From Doubs, the project will create two new 500kV lines into data center alley built mostly on existing transmission line routes.  On PJM's map, that project looks like this:
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The major new lines that will require new transmission rights-of-way are in the west and north.  Worse yet, PJM has assigned these greenfield projects to competitive transmission builders from other states.  Much of the western line is assigned to NextEra, a company from Florida.  The northern line is assigned to PSE&G, a company from New Jersey.  These companies don't know our communities or how impossible it will be to plow through them with new transmission lines.  And at the end of the day, they may not care... they won't be seeing it from the windows of their own homes.

Only in Jefferson County will the west project be assigned to incumbent FirstEnergy/Potomac Edison because it is a expansion and rebuild of a line they already own.  These are the same guys who brought us the Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline, or PATH, project between 2008-2012.  Won't we have fun the second time around?

And with that rough description of the plan presented, here's my report of yesterday's TEAC meeting.

The meeting was kicked off with a brief speech from PJM's Vice President of Transmission, Ken Seiler, who read from some canned speech about how this transmission plan is the result of transitioning to clean energy.  You can read more about that here.  PJM's can also included that article.  But things didn't quite go as planned.  I spoke up to state that PJM's plan is nothing more than a giant extension cord importing fossil fuel power from WV and PA into Northern Virginia.  I asked how this comports with Virginia's "clean energy" laws.  Are Virginia's clean energy goals nothing but a sham they hide behind while actually importing more fossil fuels from surrounding states?

PJM personnel tried to push back that its plan would connect "new resources" but it was half-hearted at best.  There are no "new resources" anywhere near these lines.

PJM TEAC leaders explained how their plan would be read twice at TEAC meetings and then submitted to the PJM Board of Managers for approval.  Once approved (because *gasp* that can be the ONLY outcome!) the projects would be assigned and the utilities would take it from there.  PJM explained it would allow a whopping six, count 'em 6, days from second read to Board meeting.  Because being boxed into a time crunch isn't my favorite thing, I asked how we could contact PJM's Board of Managers right now.  PJM said it would send me the information, but that only poked the hornet's nest.  Many other attendees also wanted the information so they could contact the Board.  A gentleman from the Maryland Office of People's Counsel told PJM they should be running this more like a public hearing.  Bravo!  PJM's "transparency" with stakeholders leaves much to be desired.  Many people have tried to sign up for meetings and found themselves in an impossible maze.  Even if they finally do manage to sign up, they have to sit in the meeting for hours just to get an opportunity to comment on this plan, which is always the last item on the agenda.  Ain't nobody got time for that!  PJM offered up that it would take email comments, something I had to force them into months ago.  PJM tried to direct comments to some "customer service" email that is nothing but a black hole.   I know how to contact the Board directly and it was confirmed yesterday after much discussion.  More to come on that front, but get your pencils sharpened and be ready to send your comments!

I asked PJM what would happen if this plan and all its separate parts are not approved and built by the "in service" date selected (June 2027).  Will the lights go out?  Will the utilities in No. Va. have to tell the new data centers that they cannot supply them with electricity?  PJM's answer was long and winding about how much these new projects are "needed" but at its core I saw a glimmer of reality.  Yes, they would have to stop serving new load so the lights won't go out.  This is where PJM's reality diverges from the one the rest of us live in.  PJM thinks these projects (all of them) will be built on time and on budget.  PJM won't even entertain the reality that the vast majority of these projects won't be built on time, and several of them won't be built ever.

After the PATH failure, I've worked with landowner groups on at least a dozen other transmission projects around the country that were hotly opposed.  Not one of them has ever been built.  I know a transmission failure in the making when I see it, and I know how to push it off the possibility cliff.  PJM is not being realistic, despite losing a lot of major transmission battles in recent memory.

I asked why PJM changed its plan to allow FirstEnergy to build the west project in Jefferson County at the very last minute before yesterday's meeting.  It's because FirstEnergy owns the line that will be rebuilt.  That's something I questioned at the last TEAC meeting where PJM insisted that NextEra would be doing the rebuild.

And speaking of FirstEnergy and the project in Jefferson County, I also asked whether the new solar "farms" in Jefferson that are being built adjacent to the existing line that will be rebuilt will lose service for an extended period of time while the rebuild is happening.  These projects have waited years to interconnect to the existing line and now they may not have service after all until the project is completed.  It could be many months because the existing line has to be shut off and torn down before the replacement is built.  PJM's answer, if you can believe it, is that FirstEnergy did not come prepared to answer that question.  In other words, we don't know or care.  I thought PJM was a planner?

I asked what would happen if one of the segments of the West project was not approved by one of the 4 states that have siting authority.  Would changes be made or would the project be cancelled?  After all, if the little greenfield segment in Loudoun County is not approved, there's no need for the rest of it because it cannot connect to the data centers and we have no need for it here.  PJM's answer is that would be up to the utilities building it.  Another non-answer!  It's up to the state regulators to condition any approval on the entire project being approved before any building starts.

PJM announced that the cost of all these projects would be more than $5 Billion.  The cost would be added to the electric bills of every electric customer in the PJM region (that means you!).  I asked if that cost included financial incentives granted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which can increase costs significantly.  PJM said no.  The utilities building these projects can apply with FERC to increase their profits with higher returns (interest) and other accounting treatments that allow them to start charging ratepayers right away for projects that may or may not be built until later.  In addition, FERC can (and probably will) grant the abandonment incentive, which means ratepayers will pay for these projects WHETHER THEY ARE EVER CONSTRUCTED OR NOT.  This "plan" is going to cost us a lot more than $5B.

PJM did agree to share the "constructabilty report" it created before selecting these projects.  The report evaluates the risks and costs of each project, as well as the feasibility of actually constructing it when faced with opposition, and compares the projects to find the one with the greatest chance of success at the lowest price.  Last month, I asked PJM to make this report public and it flat out refused.  Now it says its report will be included in its recommendation paper to the Board of Managers.  Baby steps...

Yesterday's TEAC lasted 6 hours and 49 minutes, according to the timer on my WebEx.  It was a giant time suck that produced little new information, but we can't let them win because we don't show up.

PJM will recommend these awful transmission ideas to its Board of Managers on December 11.  It is up to all of us to convince the Board to reject this ill-conceived plan and demand that TEAC come up with something better.  How about something that will not place burden on communities that will receive no benefit?
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Transmission "Community Benefits" Don't Help Impacted Communities

10/24/2023

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I've written a lot about the new pot of money the DOE was granted by Congress that is supposed to provide "benefits" to communities impacted by the construction and operation of new transmission lines.

​Now here's this... a new proposal to do the exact same thing from some clueless congresscritter, and backed up by some lovely astroturf.
Protect Our Winters, a group formed to safeguard outdoor recreation from the effects of climate change, is advocating a draft bill that would increase fees on Energy Department loans for transmission lines, with the new revenues going for infrastructure projects in communities where the new lines are built.

In doing so, the group is hoping to dispel a “not in my backyard” mentality that has been common in some rural communities, where transmission lines were seen as detriments to the aesthetics of the wilderness frequented by skiers, climbers and outdoor enthusiasts.

The group’s staff, along with outdoor athletes, are seeking support for the draft they partnered on with Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, D-N.H., hoping that it will garner bicameral, bipartisan support when it’s formally introduced. The group came to Washington last week to drum up support.
First of all, who do you think paid for this D.C. party?  Do you think the "athletes" paid for it out of their own pockets?  I doubt it.  There's someone behind this who paid for the whole party, probably a someone who would benefit financially if this legislation is passed.  That's how astroturf works.  The corporate interests behind the scheme fund all sorts of free parties for anyone who will participate.  The participants rarely know anything about what they are "supporting", they're just there for the party to make it look as if "regular people" support the idea.  Has anyone actually asked a community impacted by the construction and operation of new transmission if they would drop their "NIMBY" opposition if there was some new infrastructure somewhere nearby?  Of course not, because this idea does not work!  It didn't work before, and it's not going to work now.  It's just a waste of money.

Do these gladhanders think that the actual people affected by new transmission won't continue to speak up for themselves and make their concerns clear?  As if they can be smothered into silence by a bunch of puppets pretending they are "helping" the community?

This new legislation shouldn't even see the light of day.  It has zero chance of ever being passed.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy has extended its deadline to apply for the current "Economic Development Grants" for communities impacted by the construction and operation of new transmission projects.  Probably not because they got so many applications, more like they didn't receive any worthwhile applications and are hoping if they extend the deadline some will magically appear.

The problem with these "community benefit" bribe payments is that the "community" impacted by a new transmission line is narrow and linear.  It never coincides with a traditional cluster "community."  Only those persons who are forced into hosting a new transmission lines, and those living very nearby, are actually affected or impacted.  This linear community doesn't need economic development and it would be impossible to site anything like that in the affected linear community.  The impacted landowners are the ones who oppose new transmission and prevent projects from being built.  They will not be affected one bit by the offering of community benefit bribes.  They just want the transmission to go somewhere else... like buried on existing rights-of-way, such as highway or rail.

Landowners directly impacted by new transmission must receive just compensation for property taken from them to site a new transmission line.  Nearby communities do not share in the compensation, and that's because they have not had something taken from them.  It is outrageous to suggest that people who have made no sacrifice get paid for the sacrifice of others.  There's going to be a hard day of reckoning for this at some point in the future.

So, back to the DOE mess.  I asked DOE how it defines a "community affected by the construction and operation of a new transmission line."  Here's the (non)answers I received:
I saw and heard many statements today that a grant project must “be connected to”, “nearby”, or “have a nexus to” a transmission project.  In order to determine if applying for funding is even worthwhile, I need to have this explained.
  1. DOE has not specifically defined a geographic distance from the project for eligibility purposes.  We anticipate that each project may differ in its scope and impact, therefore we have requested that each applicant should explain how their proposed project is eligible for support under this program. In addition, please note that the merit review criteria listed in the FOA at Section V states that applications for economic development activities will be assessed in part based on, “The extent and clarity of the connection described in the Application between the proposed activities and economic development benefits in communities that are likely to be impacted by a covered transmission project.”

How will “communities that may be affected by the construction and operation of a covered transmission project” be defined for eligibility purposes?  How far from the centerline of the transmission project does such a community extend?
  1. As we anticipate that impacts may vary by project and by community, DOE has requested Applicants for Area of Interest 2 address how the project will promote economic development in areas that may be affected by the construction and operation of a covered transmission project. See Section IV.E.iii of the FOA.

What is considered an “affect” of construction and operation of the project?
  1. For an understanding of how grants will be awarded, please refer to the merit review criteria for Area of Interest 1 (siting and permitting) and Area of Interest 2 (economic development) listed in the FOA at Section V. You may also refer to the “Standards for Application Evaluation” and “Other Selection Factors” including “Program Policy Factors” that are also referenced in Section V of the FOA. 

How will an economic development grant be expected to speed up siting and permitting?
  1. While the funds associated with an economic development grant can only be disbursed once either the siting authority has approved the covered transmission project (if the applicant is a siting authority) or construction has commenced (if the applicant is a state, local, or Tribal governmental entity other than a siting authority), DOE may select awardees for economic development grants prior to a decision to site and permit the relevant transmission project and obligate federal funds for such awardees.  To the extent that the activities, if awarded, would accelerate transmission siting timelines and/or increase the chance that a transmission project would be developed, DOE will consider that as part of the established Merit Review Criteria.
DOE has no criteria to determine whether the applicant for the funds is actually "affected by the construction and operation of a transmission project" as directed by the enabling statute.  DOE is simply going to make it up based on the applications it receives in order to give the money away.  What's going to happen when these awards end up in court?  The money is going to be clawed back, that's what, unless it is only given to "communities" affected by the construction and operation of the transmission project.

Such a complete waste of time!  But that's not stopping Representative Kuster from being a good puppet and adding to this illogical give away.
Kuster, a member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, noted in a statement that the U.S. may need to triple energy transmission capacity by 2050 to meet the target of net-zero carbon emissions by bringing more renewable electricity generation on line.

“In order to make that a reality, we must ensure that communities where transmission projects will be built are excited to host these lines,” Kuster said.  “By securing tangible benefits for the towns and cities that host these projects, like new schools, roads, or outdoor recreation facilities, in addition to improved electricity reliability, this legislation will help build support for transmission projects across the country.”
"Excited"?  They're going to be so "excited" that they show up on her front lawn in the middle of the night armed with torches and pitchforks!

And you know what the best part is going to be?  The "athletes" in the crowd who thought the party was such a good idea when it didn't affect them, but ended up with a new transmission line in one of the places they hold dear.  NIMBY happens to everyone, as soon as the party is over.
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PJM Selects New Transmission Scenarios

10/15/2023

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On October 3, PJM Interconnection revealed its preferred scenarios for new transmission to connect coal-fired electric generation plants in West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania to the unabated build out of new data centers in Northern Virginia that are making our grid unreliable.

PJM narrowed the 72 proposals it received down to just 3 preferred scenarios shown in this presentation on pages 41-43.  PJM says it included the proposal on page 41, identified as NextEra 175, because it was a non-incumbent solution.  PJM went on to indicate that this proposal really doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of being the final selection.  PJM is favoring the 500 kV or 765 kV scenarios on pages 42-43.  PJM said that it will select one of these two for an immediate recommendation for approval and build, and select the other as a long-term scenario.  From what PJM said, and from browsing the submissions in PJM's next competitie proposal window, I surmise that the 500 kV scenario is the "right now" project and the 765 kV scenario is the long term solution it will recommend next.  Therefore, we can expect that PJM will approve and assign BOTH of these proposals to be built within the next 5-7 years.

Let's concentrate on the 500kV scenario.  PJM says that this scenario is part of proposal number 853 submitted by NextEra.  NextEra is a competitive transmission developer based in Florida.  It's not your local utility.  NextEra 853 looks like this on PJM's map:
Picture
The portions of this proposal that affect Jefferson County, West Virginia and Loudoun County, Virginia look like this:
Picture
There are two connecting route segments in Jefferson County, West Virginia and Loudoun County, Virginia.  The following is PJM's narrative description of where these routes will go.  The brown text indicates portions where NextEra will wreck and rebuild the existing 138kV transmission line (wooden H-frame poles) as a double-circuit 500/138 kV line that will require at least an additional 30 feet of right-of-way.  The green text indicates portions of the project that will be on new 165 ft. wide right-of-way.  For the Loudoun County portion, the new 500 kV line will be routed in areas without existing transmission lines.

Segment 1
General route description: Route is approximately 22 miles long. Starting at a new dead end structure at the new Woodside substation, the line routes east along the existing Stonewall - Feagan's Mill 138kV transmission line ROW for 11 miles with the entire Stonewall - Feagan's Mill 138kV transmission line rebuilt under the new greenfield transmission line. The new line routes around the existing Feagan's Mill substation and then resumes using the existing 138kV transmission ROW between Feagan's Mill and Millville, for about 2 miles where the 138kV transmission ROW separates from the existing Bismark - Doubs500kV transmission ROW. The line routes adjacent to the existing 500kV transmission ROW for almost 4 miles before resumes using the existing Millville - Lovettsville 138kV transmission line. The line uses the Millville - Lovettsville 138kV transmission line ROW for approximately 4 miles to the east before deviating from the existing 138kV transmission ROW to create a new ROW. It is advantageous to rebuild the existing 138kV transmission circuits underneath the new 500kVtransmission line to minimize viewshed impacts, reduce ROW acquisition costs, reduce residential land infrastructure impacts, and reduce tree clearing requirements, especially for the furthest east section where the new line crosses the Appalachian Trail. This line component ends east of the Appalachian Trail, where a different line component begins to continue the route to new Gant substation.
The new right of way will be an expansion of an existing transmission line corridor for approximately 80% of the route length, where a 30 ft additional width will be required beyond the existing, assumed, ROW edge. For approximately 20% of the route length, the right of way will have its own corridor with a width of 115 ft (10%) and 165 ft (5%).
The majority, approximately 80%, of the proposed structures will be single circuit 500kV lattice towers with 138kV (TTVS-500-138) in a horizontal conductor configuration. The 138kV line to be underbuilt is an existing line. Approximately 20% of the structures will be single circuit 500kV lattice towers (TTVS-500) in a horizontal conductor configuration. Any proposed deadend structure will either be lattice tower or a 3-pole, one phase per pole structure type.
​

Segment 2
Route is approximately 25 miles long. The component begins as a continuation of the 500kV -138kV underbuild from the new Woodside substation. The line continues to follow the existing Doubs - Bismark 500kV transmission ROW for about 0.5 miles before turning south. The line maintains a predominately south-southeast direction for about 17 miles, with minor shifts in route direction to reduce impacts to existing structures, residences, and vegetation. The new line shifts east around Leesburg, Virginia, for about 5 miles, before reaching the Dulles Greenway. The line routes alongside the Dulles Greenway ROW for about a mile before turning north and terminating at the new Gant substation.
The new right of way will have its own corridor and will have a width of 165 ft.
The proposed structures will be single circuit 500kV lattice towers (TTVS-500) in a horizontal conductor configuration. Any proposed deadend structure will either be lattice tower or a 3-pole, one phase per pole structure type.
PJM has indicated that it will make its final selection on October 31.  If you even think you may be affected by this proposal, you need to make PJM aware of your concerns now.  You can send your comments on this proposal to PJM by emailing [email protected], [email protected] and [email protected].

If you do nothing, your next notice may be a postcard in the mail indicating that NextEra is routing the transmission line through your property and requires you to sign over a right-of-way across your property.  Don't be a sitting duck!
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    About the Author

    Keryn Newman blogs here at StopPATH WV about energy issues, transmission policy, misguided regulation, our greedy energy companies and their corporate spin.
    In 2008, AEP & Allegheny Energy's PATH joint venture used their transmission line routing etch-a-sketch to draw a 765kV line across the street from her house. Oooops! And the rest is history.

    About
    StopPATH Blog

    StopPATH Blog began as a forum for information and opinion about the PATH transmission project.  The PATH project was abandoned in 2012, however, this blog was not.

    StopPATH Blog continues to bring you energy policy news and opinion from a consumer's point of view.  If it's sometimes snarky and oftentimes irreverent, just remember that the truth isn't pretty.  People come here because they want the truth, instead of the usual dreadful lies this industry continues to tell itself.  If you keep reading, I'll keep writing.


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